Kodawari : One Advisory Firm Says First-Time Owners Will Build Most of India's Next 100,000 Hotel Rooms.

India signed a record number of branded hotel rooms last year. Watch who is signing them.

The public numbers, from an Economic Times report: about 64,000 branded keys across 586 hotels were signed in 2025, and nearly seven in ten keys signed this year sit outside the big metros. One advisory firm estimates half of these hotels belong to first-time owners. A large international chain says roughly nine of ten of its signings now come from new ownership groups. Another major chain puts first-time owners at 40 to 50 per cent of its projects. A hotel consultancy says three of every four leads landing on its desk each week are people who have never owned a hotel. One advisory firm's forecast sums it up: the country's next 100,000 rooms will be built largely by people who have never owned one.

Those are the facts, and the demand story is real. Weddings, pilgrimage, business travel, factories in smaller towns. I am not here to talk anyone out of buying a hotel.

I am writing it because I have spent thirty years inside hotels, from waiter to general manager, and I know what a first-year spreadsheet does not show. If you are about to sign one, count these before the profits.

1. The ramp-up is a loss you must pre-pay. A new hotel rarely opens at full occupancy, so run the stress-test yourself: for illustration, an opening year well under half your target occupancy, then a second year still climbing, with full payroll due every month. If the plan only works at high occupancy from day one, it does not work.

2. Check whether working capital is in the project cost, and funded. Your contractor got paid before opening. After that, staff, vendors, power and fuel want money every week, while online travel agents settle later. Budget the building to the last rupee and nothing is left for the business.

3. Brand and management fees come in layers, and the basis differs line by line. Some sit on revenue, some on profit, some are fixed or per booking. Ask for the fee basis of every line and run the total on your own numbers, not only the operator's projection.

4. Seasonality is brutal where the market is seasonal. In some smaller leisure destinations, a few strong months must carry the whole year. Your loan repayment does not take a holiday in the off season. Neither does your engineer.

5. The replacement cycle starts sooner than you think. Carpets, upholstery, air-conditioning, kitchen equipment. Prudent hotels reserve for this every year from day one. Skip the reserve and the same bill still arrives, unannounced.

6. A hotel is not a fixed deposit with a lobby. People call it diversification. It is an operating business that needs watching every week. If your main business keeps you elsewhere, put a competent person between you and the operator, so the reports get a reader who knows what to ask.

None of this is hidden. Any good operator will discuss it if you ask. The trouble is that nobody's brochure opens with it, and a first-time owner's excitement rarely goes looking for it.

Buy the hotel if the demand is real and the numbers survive these six lines. Location matters, but the owners who last are usually the ones who planned for the boring, expensive early years before those years arrived.

Building a new resort or trying to fix a leaking P&L? I help owners bridge the gap between design plans and long-term operational profit. Let's connect on LinkedIn to discuss your project.

HPSB Consulting

HPRD

Kodawari: Retention is not soft. It is payroll already spent.

 When a trained housekeeper gives notice, count what leaves with her: the rooms she turned without a checklist, the new hire's slow months, the trainer's hours, the regulars she greeted by name. Retention is not soft. It is payroll already spent.

#HotelOperations

Kodawari: Rs 4,000 Crore of New Hotels, and Someone Else Will Run Them. Read That Deal Twice.

 

Last week a real estate company filed the announcement every hotel brand dreams of: it will spend Rs 4,000 crore building ten hotels across India, about 4,000 rooms, and a hotel company will run all of them under its flag. Lucknow, Amritsar, Vrindavan, Faridabad, Greater Noida. This is now the standard shape of Indian hotel growth: the builder owns, the brand operates. And most people read the deal backwards.

They think the brand is taking the risk. It is not. The brand is taking a fee. The owner is taking the building, the debt, the staff and the market. I have sat on the owner's side of that table for thirty years, and the contract matters more than the flag on the gate. Here is what I would read twice before signing.

1. The fee is never the fee. The headline number, say two or three percent of revenue, is the first layer. Under it sit the incentive fee on profit, the marketing contribution, the reservation system charge, the loyalty programme cost, the technical services bill. Ask one question and insist on one answer: all-in, what percentage of my revenue and of my gross operating profit goes to the brand in a normal year? Get it modelled in writing, not said in a meeting.

2. The performance test is your only real exit. If the operator underperforms, when exactly can you remove them, measured how, against which competitive set, and what does the termination cost? If the answer is vague, the honest translation is: almost never, and at great expense. Read that clause on a bad day, not a good one.

3. Ask who controls the P&L. The brand proposes the budget; who approves it? The brand names the general manager and the finance head; do you have a say, or only a handshake? Procurement runs through the brand's systems; at what mark-up, audited how? You are funding every rupee of this. Control is not rudeness. It is the job.

4. Price the pre-opening before you fall in love. Technical services, systems setup, pre-opening marketing, recruitment, training, the launch itself. Owners routinely discover this bill after signing. Get a capped pre-opening budget in the agreement, with anything above it needing your written approval.

5. Check the market can absorb your hotel, not just the brand's story. Hotelivate and Savills put India's five-year branded pipeline at 161,000 rooms, roughly 77 percent of everything already built. Bengaluru and Hyderabad are leading rate growth, and the same report warns about absorption in smaller markets. A flag creates standards. It does not create demand. In a pilgrimage town or a satellite city, your competition is not the hotel next door. It is every other signing announced this year.

Now the balance, because asset-light is not a scam and brands are not villains. A good operator with a fair contract earns every rupee: distribution, standards, training, the loyalty base a new hotel cannot build alone. The deals that go wrong are not the ones with brands. They are the ones signed on the brand's standard draft, by an owner who was flattered to be asked.

Ten hotels, 4,000 rooms, one signature. Somewhere in that announcement is a management agreement thicker than the press release, and the press release is the only part most people will ever read. Be the owner who reads the other part.

HPRD

Building a new resort or trying to fix a leaking P&L? I help owners bridge the gap between design plans and long-term operational profit. Let's connect on LinkedIn to discuss your project.

Kodawari: Luxury Hotels Do Not Need Artificial Intelligence. They Need Smarter Intelligence.

The first letter in AI is the problem. Artificial sounds like replacement, and replacement is the one thing a luxury hotel cannot sell. So let me offer a better name for the same technology: SI, smarter intelligence. Not a machine instead of your people. A machine that makes each trained person better.

Luxury hotels run on trained manpower. The rate is justified by the person who remembers that the guest takes tea at four, prefers the corner table and never eats coriander. That memory, that timing, that judgment is the product. It is also scarce, expensive and hard to roster. This is exactly where SI earns its keep: it does not do the serving, it makes the server superhuman at the parts guests never see.

Here is how I would put it to work.

1. Give it the memory. Guest history, preferences, the conversation from the last stay, the allergy mentioned once at check-in. SI holds all of it and whispers it to the staff member before they reach the table. The guest thinks the hotel never forgets. The hotel simply stopped relying on one person's notebook.

2. Give it the first ring. Every enquiry answered in seconds, in the guest's own language, with the draft reply ready. In luxury, the trained person still decides and still signs. SI does the reading and the typing; your reservationist does the thinking and the winning. Speed comes from the machine, conversion from the person.

3. Give it the handover. A request made at midnight should not depend on who wrote it down. SI logs it, routes it and clocks it, so the morning shift starts knowing exactly what the night shift promised. Nothing dies between departments, and the guest never has to ask twice. Asking twice is a small thing at a midscale hotel. At a luxury rate it is a broken promise.

4. Keep the person in front. The guest paying a luxury rate should never meet the machine. They should meet a better prepared host. The moment the technology becomes visible as technology, it has stopped being SI and gone back to being a gadget.

5. Measure it like any other investment. Staff hours per occupied room, enquiry-to-booking conversion, request completion time, and the line that matters most in luxury: what guests write afterwards. If the reviews do not notice the difference, the spend was decoration. If the reviews notice the machine instead, it was worse.

Now the caution. SI fails the moment it is used as a substitute. Put a machine voice between your guest and your team and you have built an expensive midscale experience at a luxury cost. The hotels that get this wrong will automate the greeting and keep the chaos. The hotels that get it right will do the opposite: automate the chaos and keep the greeting.

There is a shortage of trained hospitality people everywhere, and luxury feels it first. You cannot hire your way out of it, and you should not try to automate your way out of it either. Train your people well, then give them smarter intelligence to work with. A well trained person with SI behind them serves like two. An untrained one with AI in front of them serves like none.

HPRD

Building a new resort or trying to fix a leaking P&L? I help owners bridge the gap between design plans and long-term operational profit. Let's connect on LinkedIn to discuss your project.

Kodawari: There Is Plenty of Money for Hotels. Your Refinancing Might Still Not Pencil.

There is more money looking for hotels right now than at any point in years, and a growing line of owners it cannot help.

That sounds like a contradiction. It is not. It is the split running through the hotel debt market this autumn, and which side of it you sit on matters more than any headline about liquidity.

On one side, the lenders are genuinely back. Banks, CMBS shops, life insurance companies and private debt funds are all writing hotel loans again. JLL's hotels team calls the market incredibly fertile, and for once the word fits. Debt funds are especially active in the $50 million to $250 million space. If your hotel produces steady cash flow, lenders will compete for your business.

On the other side, a quieter truth. Peachtree Group's head of credit originations put a number on it this month: once a hotel's debt yield falls below roughly 8 percent, the universe of lenders willing to refinance it shrinks dramatically. And the gap between the haves and have-nots, he says, has got worse, not better.

Debt yield is your net operating income divided by the loan amount. It is the first number a credit committee checks, because it shows how fast their money comes back if things go wrong. If you do not know yours, the lender knows something about your hotel that you do not.

So what separates the owners who refinance smoothly from the ones who find the door half closed? Four things, and none of them is luck.

1. Know your number before they quote it back. Calculate the debt yield on your current loan today. Around 8 percent and above, you have options. Below it, every quarter you wait is a quarter where the answer can get harder. This is a ten minute exercise with your accountant, and it changes how you negotiate.

2. Stop budgeting for rate cuts. This is what sank the 2021 and 2022 vintage. Owners took bridge loans on business plans that assumed cheaper money was coming. Some cuts did come, but the long end of the market refused to follow and exit values never recovered. The result, as one broker put it, was coupon relief without proceeds relief: the interest bill fell, but not enough to let a new loan pay off the old one. A plan that needs a rate cut to work is not a plan. It is a hope with a repayment date.

3. Be honest about the basis. The common thread in the troubled files is not bad operations. It is a bad starting point: bought too high, or a renovation that ran far over budget, so the debt no longer matches what the building can earn or fetch. No lender can fix arithmetic like that, and pretending it away burns the one thing you still control, which is time. If the gap is real, the honest menu is new equity in, costs out, or a sale while buyers are active. All three are better done early than ordered by a maturity date.

4. Start eighteen months out, not six. Roughly $18.7 billion of hotel CMBS debt matures in 2026, and hotel loan delinquency has already climbed to 6.18 percent. The owner who arrives early with a clean file gets the good banker and the good terms. The owner who arrives in the final quarter gets whatever is left.

One more number to keep on your desk: the ten year Treasury. It touched 5.28 percent on October 2, the highest since 2007, and your refinancing price keys off it far more than off anything the Fed announces. Watch it the way you watch your occupancy report.

Now the caution, because there is one. Abundant capital is not your capital. It belongs to the deals that pencil, and the market is sorting those deals with unusual honesty right now. If your numbers work, this is a fine time to refinance. If they do not, no amount of market liquidity changes your arithmetic, and waiting for sentiment to rescue a weak file is the most expensive strategy in this business. The rate fairy is on leave.

The good news is that the sorting test is knowable in advance. Debt yield, basis, timing, the ten year. An owner who walks in with those four answered is not asking the lender for a favour. He is offering the lender a deal, and in a market full of money, good deals get taken.

HPRD

Building a new resort or trying to fix a leaking P&L? I help owners bridge the gap between design plans and long-term operational profit. Let's connect on LinkedIn to discuss your project.

Kodawari Notes: One Rupee Past ₹7,500: The Price Point Indian Hotel Owners Keep Walking Around

A guest books a room at ₹7,500 and pays ₹7,875 with tax. Another guest books the room next door at ₹7,501 and pays ₹8,851. One rupee on the rate, nearly a thousand on the bill. That is not a typo. It is how GST on hotel rooms has worked in India since September 22, 2025.

Under the revised rules, rooms at ₹7,500 a night or less carry 5% GST, and the hotel cannot claim input tax credit. Rooms above ₹7,500 carry 18%, and the hotel can. A year on, Accor's ibis team told CNBC-TV18 that guests have become more aware of the ₹7,500 line when they compare prices, though location and purpose of travel still decide most bookings.

Here is what an owner should do with that.

1. Look at the bill the guest sees, not only the rate you set. A ₹7,400 room and a ₹7,600 room sit on opposite sides of a cliff. The second one costs the guest about ₹1,000 more in tax alone. Your rate card needs to be read the way your guest reads it.

2. Do the credit math before you celebrate the lower rate. At 5% you give up input tax credit on what you buy: inputs, services, and capital goods for those rooms. If you are building or renovating, that GST on the build stays with you. A lower tax for the guest can be a higher cost for the owner.

3. Check where your property actually sits. The test is the declared tariff per room per day, with extra bed charges included. A room that averages ₹7,200 on paper and ₹7,800 with an extra bed is not a ₹7,200 room.

4. Keep rooms and restaurant separate in your head. In a hotel with a restaurant on the premises, food and beverage can still be taxed at 18% even when the room is at 5%. Segregate the supplies properly, because the credit reversal rules apply.

5. Decide the line on purpose. Some owners will price just under it and fill the house. Some will price well above it and keep the credit. The expensive choice is the one made by accident, by a revenue manager chasing a competitor's rate.

Now the caution. I am an operator, not a tax adviser, and the rules have notes and conditions that depend on how your property is structured. Your chartered accountant has to run your own numbers, especially if you are mid-construction. Hotels in the same city can come to different answers for good reasons.

For thirty years I watched owners treat the rate as a marketing number. In India it is now a tax number too. The owners who win the next few years will be the ones who set the rate once, with the accountant and the GM in the same room, and then let the house run.

HPRD

Building a new resort or trying to fix a leaking P&L? I help owners bridge the gap between design plans and long-term operational profit. Let's connect on LinkedIn to discuss your project.

Kodawari Notes: The Lenders Are Warming to Hotels Again. Your File Decides What It Costs You.

A hotel owner with a loan maturing this year walks into a better market than the owner who walked in twelve months ago, and the difference in what each of them pays will come down to a folder of paper.

Here is the thaw, in numbers. CMBS lodging delinquency fell to 5.22% in June, down 79 basis points in a single month, the sharpest improvement of any major property type. RevPAR turned positive again in the first quarter of 2026, after 2025 became the first year on record where it declined without a recession to blame. And 76.6 billion dollars of CMBS debt matures in 2026, with lodging and office sitting at the front of the queue. Lenders want hotel paper again, and they have a wall of maturing loans to pick from. They can afford to be choosy.

The number they reach for first is debt yield: your net operating income divided by the loan you are asking for. Not the interest rate, not the loan-to-value. They use it because hotel revenue reprices every night, unlike a leased office, and they want to know the building carries the debt even when the market wobbles. An owner who cannot quote his own debt yield in one breath has already told the lender something.

So here is the file I would build before sitting across that table.

1. Finish the PIP, or fund it to the last rupee. A half-done renovation reads as a half-run hotel. The competitive quotes in this market are going to select-service properties with a completed or fully funded improvement plan and a recognised flag. Unfinished product gets wider pricing, if it gets a quote at all.

2. Bring a clean comp set. Your STR numbers need to sit in line with your competitive set, or ahead of it. If you trail the set, bring the reason and the fix with dates. A lender can work with a bad quarter. He cannot work with a shrug.

3. Normalise the NOI honestly. Reserve properly for furniture, fixtures and equipment, at the percentage a serious operator uses, not the one that flatters the file. Lenders have read enough hotel P&Ls to find a thin reserve, and they price the discovery into the rate.

4. Know which side of the table you sit on. Flagged select-service with steady business demand is what this market wants to finance. An independent full-service property still rebuilding occupancy faces fewer chairs and wider pricing. Walk in knowing your category, and you negotiate from fact instead of hope.

5. Time the conversation early. Twelve to eighteen months before maturity is when a file like this gets a fast quote. Owners who last spoke to a lender during the 2023-2024 pullback will find a different reception now, but only if the file arrives before the wall does.

Now the caution, because a warming market makes people careless. Delinquency at 5.22% is improved, not healthy. The maturity wall means lenders can pick the clean files and leave the rest. A warmer window is not a cheaper window for a messy file; it is just a window, and windows close.

For thirty years I have said the back of the house decides the profit. It turns out it decides the interest rate too. The PIP, the comp set, the honest reserve, all of that is operations. Fix the operations and the rate follows. That part was always in your hands.

HPRD

Building a new resort or trying to fix a leaking P&L? I help owners bridge the gap between design plans and long-term operational profit. Let's connect on LinkedIn to discuss your project.